You can never appreciate the shade of a tree unless you sweat in the sun.
Ongoing consolidation in the domestic market and erratic global cues are surely making the bulls sweat for every penny. Making money in a largely lackluster market has become tough. Also, the fact that we have had such a huge rally since March 2009 will always act as a deterrent. After touching two-year highs recently, the key indices have been drifting in a narrow range.
Global markets have been a bit volatile of late although the US indices are trading near or above 18-month highs. Headline risk still prevails due to lingering concerns over sovereign debt issues in Europe. Anemic recovery in the US and China’s tightening are among the other notable pressure points.
Back home the main worries are tied to inflation and its fallout on monetary policy. In the immediate future, monsoon will play some sentimental role in driving the sentiment.
Today we expect a flat to slightly higher start. Thursday was a day of large caps as fund flows improved. In a time of uncertainty one should stick with the best and the brightest while dumping the laggards.
| ADR/GDR | | | |
| | Latest (US$) | Price % chg | % Prem/Disc |
| Dr. Reddys | 26.7 | 1.3 | (0.8) |
| HDFC Bk | 149.9 | 1.4 | 15.1 |
| ICICI Bk | 43.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| ITC | 5.9 | 0.3 | (0.4) |
| Infosys | 62.2 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Satyam | 5.4 | 0.0 | 30.4 |
| Ranbaxy | 10.2 | (1.5) | (0.6) |
| Reliance | 47.8 | 0.2 | (1.0) |
| Wipro | 24.0 | 2.0 | 51.9 |
| SBI | 99.0 | 5.1 | (0.8) |
| Tata Motors | 20.0 | 0.9 | 6.6 |
| Sterlite | 17.9 | (0.6) | (0.6) |
| L&T | 35.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Indian market | | % change |
| | Last close | 1 day | 3 mth | YTD |
| Sensex | 17,574 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 0.6 |
| Nifty | 5,269 | 0.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 |
| BSE 100 | 2,223 | 0.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| BSE 200 | 7,021 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 2.6 |
| CNX Midcap | 7,973 | (0.1) | 6.7 | 7.3 |
| BSE Smallcap | 9,154 | 0.1 | 5.7 | 9.5 |
| Developed market | | % change |
| | Last close | 1 day | 3 mth | YTD |
| Dow Jones | 11,134 | 0.1 | 9.4 | 6.8 |
| Nasdaq | 2,519 | 0.6 | 14.2 | 11.0 |
| S&P 500 | 1,209 | 0.2 | 10.7 | 8.4 |
| FTSE | 5,665 | (1.0) | 6.8 | 4.7 |
| CAC | 3,925 | (1.3) | 2.7 | (0.3) |
| DAX | 6,169 | (1.0) | 8.3 | 3.5 |
| Hang Seng* | 21,333 | (0.6) | 2.9 | (2.5) |
| Nikkei* | 10,915 | (0.3) | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| S&P/ASX200* | 4,892 | (0.3) | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| * Markets are open |
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| Emerging market | | % change |
| | Last close | 1 day | 3 mth | YTD |
| Shanghai Comp | 3,010 | 0.4 | (3.8) | (8.1) |
| Brazil Bovespa | 69,386 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 1.2 |
| Mexico Bolsa | 33,658 | 0.4 | 9.2 | 4.8 |
| Kospi* | 1,739 | (0.0) | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Micex | 1,443 | (1.5) | 2.3 | 5.4 |
| Taiwan* | 8,014 | 0.4 | 1.1 | (2.1) |
| Straits* | 2,981 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 2.9 |
| * Markets are open |
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| Institutional activity | |
| (Rs cr) | Cash | F&O | MTD | YTD |
| FIIs | 265 | 858 | 9,295 | 25,061 |
| MFs | - | - | (2,599) | (7,680) |
| FIIs Prov. | 518 | | | |
| MFs Prov. | 182 | | | |
| Commodities | | % change |
| | Last close | 1 day | 3 mth | YTD |
| Crude (US$/bbl) | 83.8 | 0.1 | 12.4 | 5.6 |
| Gold (US$/oz) | 1,140 | (0.1) | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| Copper (US$/mt) | 7,655 | (0.9) | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Aluminium (US$/mt) | 2,288 | (1.3) | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| Zinc (US$/mt) | 2,383 | (0.3) | 2.3 | (5.8) |
| Advance/Decline stocks | | | | |
| (Nos) | A | B | S | Total |
| Adv | 141 | 1,159 | 270 | 1,915 |
| Dec | 61 | 555 | 140 | 965 |
| Unch | 1 | 62 | 13 | 105 |
| A/D ratio (x)* | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| *A/D excluding Unch |
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| Trade value | | |
| (Rs cr) | | % chg |
| Cash NSE | 15,929 | 15.4 |
| Cash BSE | 4,699 | 8.9 |
| Total Cash | 20,628 | 13.9 |
| Delivery (%) | 40.1 | - |
| Derivatives | 145,809 | 109.1 |
| Currency | | % change |
| | Last close | 1 day | 3 mth | YTD |
| Rs/US$ | 44.55 | (0.0) | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| Rs/EUR | 58.68 | (0.9) | 11.1 | 13.5 |
| US$/GBP | 1.53 | (0.2) | (5.6) | (5.1) |
| US$/EUR | 1.32 | (0.5) | (6.6) | (7.7) |
| Yen/US$ | 93.43 | (0.1) | (3.4) | (0.4) |
| Bond market | | |
| | Last Close (%) | Bps chg |
| 10yr Gsec | 7.99 | (0.02) |
| Call rate | 3.80 | 0.80 |
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